Farmington, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

123
FXUS64 KTSA 250714
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
Issued by National Weather Service Norman OK
214 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

  - Unsettled weather through the remainder of the week and into
    the weekend, with daily thunderstorm chances across the
    region.

  - Limited severe weather potential will last through the weekend
    with locally heavy rainfall potential Saturday.

  - A more defined low pressure system moves into the Plains with
    additional thunderstorm chances early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A line of storms is moving into northeast OK this morning. As the
line moves east it will continue to move into progressively
greater low level convective inhibition, which should mostly keep
it non-severe. The main impacts will be rain, gusty winds, and
some lightning. Most CAM guidance has the line diminishing near
dawn. Some guidance is hinting at a second line of showers and
storms Friday morning after sunrise, though this seems somewhat
unlikely given it would track through the same area as the current
MCS. With that said, it is certainly possible for portions of
eastern OK to see additional precipitation into mid morning.

Most guidance is dry for the late morning and early afternoon
period, with high temperatures climbing into the mid 70s to low
80s. A weak front will slowly move into the area during the
afternoon, interacting with the somewhat unstable atmosphere,
resulting in a slight chance of showers. As forcing will be weak,
most locations will remain dry, but a couple of showers and
storms near the boundary would make sense. Maintained slight PoPs
for the late afternoon to account for this.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Model guidance indicates rain chances will increase to at least
some degree Saturday morning as the low level jet strengthens and
a weak upper level feature passes through. With favorable warm
advection persisting into the daytime hours and better upper
level diffluence arriving, decent rain chances will continue
through the day. Model soundings support the risk of
thunderstorms, a few of which could be marginally severe for hail
and wind. This is probably the period with the most widespread
rain potential through the weekend.

Most guidance then shows Sunday and most of Monday as relatively
down days with little in the way of forcing, so mostly kept PoPs
below 20% through this period. Temperatures will remain mild with
highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s. Thunderstorm
chances will increase late Monday and Tuesday as several factors
come together. A front will slow move through the area during
this period with good upper level diffluence and plenty of low
level moisture from a well developed low level jet. Model guidance
has been consistent the last few days that storms will develop
along this frontal boundary, keeping an associated severe and
heavy rain risk. Behind this cold front, rain chances will wind
down as low level moisture decreases and instability diminishes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Immediate concerns aviation-wise are potential for thunderstorm
impacts in the next 1 to 4 hours at the NE OK terminals and fog
that has developed across parts of W AR. An ongoing MCS near I-35
should continue to move into NE OK early this morning, albeit
diminishing intensity given lower instability this far east.
TUL/RVS will be most likely to see wind making it to the surface
and will include a VRB wind mention with 25kt gusts in TEMPO
groups for these two sites, along with IFR conditions. BVO will
also contain a TEMPO group with IFR conditions but given the track
of the system, will leave the wind group out. The MCS will likely
be gone before reaching either MLC or the W AR sites. Patchy fog
has developed in the past 1 to 2 hours near and east of the OK/AR
border, with FYV seeing dense fog at present. FYV and FSM are the
only sites currently with significant visibility reductions, but
expect some potential for IFR visibilities XNA/ROG also toward
daybreak. Some increase in shower and maybe, thunderstorm
potential will develop after daybreak at the NW AR sites, with
potential for IFR visibilities in showers during this time frame.
An upward trend in ceilings remains likely for all sites midday
into early afternoon. Potential for additional shower and
thunderstorm impacts at the E OK sites will increase just after
this valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  59  72  62 /  60  40  60  60
FSM   84  65  79  63 /  50  30  60  50
MLC   81  62  77  63 /  50  50  80  50
BVO   79  55  70  59 /  60  40  50  70
FYV   81  58  75  59 /  60  30  50  50
BYV   79  59  70  58 /  60  20  40  50
MKO   78  60  73  61 /  60  40  70  60
MIO   77  57  70  60 /  70  20  40  60
F10   78  61  72  62 /  60  50  80  60
HHW   80  64  78  63 /  30  30  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22